The Sweet and Sour News for Mondelez: Price Hikes Boost Sales, but Cocoa Costs Cloud the 2026 Forecast
If you have been reaching for an Oreo, a Ritz cracker, or a Cadbury bar lately, you are contributing to a mixed picture at snack giant Mondelez International. The company, which is behind some of the world’s most recognizable treats, recently unveiled its fourth quarter 2025 results. On the surface, the numbers looked quite tasty, but Wall Street quickly found a bitter note in the 2026 outlook.
Mondelez reported better-than-expected financial performance for the final quarter of 2025. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.72, edging out the analyst consensus of $0.70. Revenue also beat projections, climbing 9.3% year over year to reach $10.5 billion. However, a closer look at that revenue growth reveals the primary source: price hikes. The company’s organic net revenue grew 5.1%, driven almost entirely by higher pricing, a necessary move as it grapples with raw material inflation, especially the unprecedented volatility of cocoa prices.
The Cocoa Crunch and Volume Challenge
The problem is not a lack of demand for their products, but rather the cost of the ingredients to make them. Chief among these is cocoa, which has seen historic price highs. These elevated costs hammered the company’s profitability in 2025, and their effects are now front-loaded for the start of 2026. Mondelez had to hedge its cocoa requirements for the current year at these higher costs, meaning the profit margins will feel the pain early on, even if raw cocoa prices have started to stabilize slightly.
Investors focused on the company’s cautious guidance for the full year. Mondelez is projecting organic net revenue growth of flat to 2% and adjusted earnings per share growth of flat to 5% on a constant currency basis. This tepid forecast is what caused the stock to dip following the earnings announcement, as the market digested the impact of the cost headwinds and volume declines, particularly in developed markets like North America and Europe.
A Sweet Recovery in Sight?
It is not all doom and gloom for the snack food powerhouse. There is a two part strategy for a turnaround. First, the company is seeing stronger organic growth in emerging markets, which outperformed developed regions in the fourth quarter. Second, management is banking on a recovery in 2027. Because their current high cost cocoa is mostly hedged for 2026, the company expects chocolate margins to “materially improve” the year after.
In the meantime, Mondelez plans to spend significantly more on brand investments in 2026 to try and reverse the volume declines and encourage consumers to buy more frequently. This is a strategic move to restore volume growth and efficiency while waiting for the cocoa cost benefit to kick in. Analysts, for their part, maintain a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” on the stock, with an average price target currently hovering in the high $67 range, suggesting they believe in the long term strength of iconic brands like Oreo, Ritz, and Cadbury. The question for the year ahead is whether increased marketing can get consumers snacking in volume again, or if they will wait for the sweet relief of 2027.