The Black Friday ‘Freeze’: Why Record Spending Is Hiding a Shift to Ultra-Cautious Shopping
The biggest shopping day of the year has arrived, but if you expected the kind of chaotic frenzy we saw in previous decades, you’d be forgiven for calling it a “Black Friday Freeze.” While the numbers on the screen look robust, a deeper dive into consumer behavior reveals that the traditional shopping bonanza is less of a wild sprint and more of a highly calculated, value-driven marathon.
Make no mistake, we are still on track for a massive weekend of spending. Industry projections suggest U.S. e-commerce sales for Black Friday alone will surpass $11 billion, marking a significant year-over-year increase. This is a strong showing that defies the notion of a total shutdown. However, that headline figure hides a crucial story about the American shopper: they are more cautious and strategic than ever before.
The real “freeze” isn’t in total sales volume, but in consumer confidence. A significant majority of shoppers, around 76 percent, have indicated they plan to spend the same amount or even less on holiday shopping this year compared to last. What’s behind this new sense of restraint? The culprits are familiar: the persistence of high prices, the rising cost of groceries, and a general cooling of consumer sentiment have all tightened household budgets. As a result, shoppers are pulling back on discretionary purchases, with some analyses even showing a 4 percent dip in spending intentions for the Thanksgiving weekend events.
This economic pressure is splitting the retail world. We are seeing value-focused retailers like Walmart and T.J. Maxx’s parent company, TJX Cos., reporting strong quarterly results as shoppers—even those from higher-income brackets—flock to stores offering deals on essentials. Meanwhile, some mid-range and higher-end retailers are struggling to boost sales, illustrating how much people are prioritizing affordability.
The new Black Friday shopper is armed and ready. This year’s event has officially become a “Cyber Week” affair, with retailers like Amazon and Target rolling out deep discounts weeks ahead of time to capture early interest. More than 70 percent of transactions are happening online, reinforcing the digital shift. Furthermore, consumers are delaying purchases to find the absolute best deal, and nearly half of U.S. shoppers are using digital tools to compare prices and track deals, turning deal-hunting into a highly informed endeavor.
So, while electronics remain the undisputed king of Black Friday deals, accounting for around 42 percent of promotional revenue, the way we buy is changing. The “Black Friday Freeze” is less about shoppers staying home and more about them executing a highly disciplined, digital-first plan to stretch every dollar. For retailers, it’s a high-stakes balancing act between driving sales and maintaining profits in a world where every shopper is a budget-minded expert. The deals may be hot, but the consumer sentiment has definitely chilled.